The five possible causes of a crisis in OECD countries in the future

We see five possible causes of a crisis in OECD countries in the future : A financial crisis that can be either a public debt crisis if interest rates are normalised, or a self-fulfilling crisis caused by a deterioration in financial markets; A social crisis caused by a deterioration in the quality of jobs (labour market polarisation) and by a distortion of income distribution and risks; An environmental crisis, due either to a crisis in certain industries affected by environmental standards (cars), or to a sharp rise in the cost of energy; A crisis of increased competition between countries caused by a decline in demand for industrial products and leading to tax and cost competition, protectionism and rapid deindustrialisation in un competitive countries ; A crisis of sluggish growth caused by a slowdown in productivity while there is a population ageing.