The French and Italian governments could be in trouble in 2019

In 2019, we should expect growth to decline in France and Italy due to the natural cycle of housing purchases, durable goods purchases and corporate investment ( companies’ hiring difficulties, weak growth in real wages), and also due to the global slowdown and the rise in interest rates in Italy and, in both countries , the political uncertainty that has led to a loss of confidence. If growth fell below the level that makes it possible to lower the unemployment rate (1.2% in France, 0% in Italy), both governments would be in trouble . In France, public opinion would believe that the structural reforms are ineffective ; in Italy, that the policy to stimulate demand through fiscal deficits that is being implemented is dangerous.