The key issue of the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro zone
As long as inflation expectations remain “anchored” at around 2%, the ECB is not concerned because it maintains its credibility in the fight against inflation. But if inflation expectations are no longer “anchored”, then a much stronger response from the ECB to fight inflation should be expected. What is happening today? There are different inflation expectations: In financial markets (inflation swaps); Among households; Among companies; Among financial sector economists. We are currently seeing: That short-term expected inflation is very high; But that medium-term expected inflation (over 2 years, 5 years, 10 years) remains close to 2%, even though it has risen slightly. For the time being, euro-zone medium-term inflation expectations remain more or less anchored. The question is whether this will last.