Report
Patrick Artus

The key issue of the anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro zone

As long as inflation expectations remain “anchored” at around 2%, the ECB is not concerned because it maintains its credibility in the fight against inflation. But if inflation expectations are no longer “anchored”, then a much stronger response from the ECB to fight inflation should be expected. What is happening today? There are different inflation expectations: In financial markets (inflation swaps); Among households; Among companies; Among financial sector economists. We are currently seeing: That short-term expected inflation is very high; But that medium-term expected inflation (over 2 years, 5 years, 10 years) remains close to 2%, even though it has risen slightly. For the time being, euro-zone medium-term inflation expectations remain more or less anchored. The question is whether this will last.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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