The most striking macroeconomic developments in 2019

Three macroeconomic developments in 2019 were particularly striking: one in the United States, one in China and one in the euro zone. In the United States, the success of the overheating policy (choice of expansionary fiscal and monetary policies at full employment), which paved the way for a rise in the participation rate and the employment rate and an upturn in productivity gains; In China, the acceleration in the transfer of demand from industry to services, the contraction in domestic industrial demand and imports, which means that China is slowing down the global economy; and the marked deterioration in corporate profitability and in solvency, which is worrying for the future; In the euro zone, the limited effectiveness of the expansionary monetary policy, which has not corrected the imbalance between investment and savings, has not kick-started credit and has not boosted share prices, which must be explained and which should lead to increased use of fiscal policy.