Report
Patrick Artus

The "new normality" for economic policies

In OECD countries and China, the "new normality" for economic policies has led to an expansionary fiscal policy combined with an expansionary monetary policy. One of the rare exceptions is Germany. This "new normality" can be maintained because: An expansionary monetary policy makes it possible to have a very high public debt ratio; The countries that practice it have either structural external surpluses (Japan, euro zone, China), or prevent capital outflows (China), or benefit from their currency’s reserve currency role (United States). What will this "new normality" of economic policies lead to in the medium term? Either to a considerable rise in the public debt ratio (as in Japan) if interest rates can remain low; Or to a debt crisis if, for any reason whatever, the expansionary monetary policy must be interrupted.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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