Report
Patrick Artus

The OECD has settled in an equilibrium with very low interest rates: An exit from this equilibrium would cause a drastic crisis

The fact that interest rates are very low and have to remain so in OECD countries has led to a new equilibrium: High debt ratios are not a problem, due to the fall in interest paid on debt; Investors have accumulated massive amounts of bonds with very low coupons; The valuation of financial assets and real estate is quite high; Inefficient companies (zombie firms) survive without any difficulty. If interest rates were to rise unexpectedly (for example due to a change in the functioning of labour markets), the shock would be terrible: excessive debt, capital losses, falling asset prices, bankruptcies. This would probably lead central banks to change their monetary policy objective , as in Japan .
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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