Report
Patrick Artus

The oil price cycle has decoupled the US and euro-zone economies

The shale oil production cycle in the United States has led to a short global oil price cycle (low prices in 2015-2016 and early 2017, high prices in late 2017 and the first half of 2018, low prices in late 2018 and 2019). A high (for example) oil price has beco me good for the United States, as it has a positive effect on the oil industry and related industries, and balances the trade account for energy. But a high oil price is bad for the euro zone, which is a large oil importer. The oil price cycle has therefore give n rise to opposing cycles in the US and euro-zone economies: US growth is boosted when oil is expensive (as in 2018), while euro-zone growth is boosted when oil prices are low (as in 2019); US growth slows when oil prices are low (2019) and euro-zone growth slows when they are high (2018).
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch