Report
Patrick Artus

The real concern for France (and other OECD countries) is that the structural fiscal deficit is a very large part of the total fiscal deficit

Two-thirds of France's fiscal deficit in 2021 is a structural fiscal deficit, which will not disappear when full employment returns. When comparing France with other OECD countries on this point, we see that France is in the middle of the pack : all OECD countries, in particular the United States, have a high weight of the structural fiscal deficit in the total deficit in 2021. It is obviously very difficult to reduce a structural fiscal deficit. If France’s economy remains at the level of 2021, even if the long-term interest rate in France remains 300 basis points lower than nominal growth, France’s public debt ratio will rise by 3 percentage points of GDP per year, which will inevitably lead to a public debt crisis.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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