The theoretical reason why long-term interest rates cannot rise
We can question the link between long-term interest rates, savings, fiscal deficits, expected inflation, short-term interest rates, etc., but there is a theoretical reason why long-term interest rates cannot rise significantly today . The money supply, due to the highly expansionary monetary policies conducted, is very high and will remain so. At equilibrium, the demand for money from different economic agents must therefore also be very high. And this is only possible if there is no penalty for holding money relative to bonds, hence the need for long-term interest rates to remain very low.