There is a structural shortage of oil and natural gas supply

Since 2015, investment in oil and natural gas exploration and production has declined considerably. Global oil and natural gas production capacity is now declining. We must be careful with scenarios of significant declines in oil and natural gas prices based on the idea that there will be a recession. A recession would have a much smaller negative impact on oil and gas prices than in the past, especially given the decline in Russian oil and natural gas exports. So we should certainly not apply today the past relationships between the business cycle and oil and natural gas prices, which are likely to remain high even in a recession. It is therefore difficult to believe in disinflation driven by falling oil and natural gas prices.