Report
Patrick Artus

There should be concern about the US economy

The United States’ strengths are well known: the weight of its technology sector, significant innovation effort, elite universities, the dollar’s reserve currency role. But the US economy’s numerous structural problems must not be overlooked: Low labour force skills, education system underperformance and, as a result, the decline in the employment rate and hiring difficulties for companies; Overuse of the dollar’s reserve currency role, in particular to keep fiscal policy expansionary , and the accumulation of a huge external debt , which results also from the inability of the productive system to export the goods demanded by the rest of the world; The risk of high inflation, due to the decline in the labour supply, and a significant rise in interest rates, with deeply negative effects for debt sustainability, asset prices, wealth and companies that have made intensive use of the leverage effect; The inability to stabilise income and wealth inequality, associated with the proliferation of economic rents (dominant companies, real estate rents, etc.), rents being synonymous with a loss of dynamism. So, in reality, the US economy is structurally weak in many respects.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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