Tighter restrictions to stay with us
Newly initiated restrictions aimed at containing the spread of the virus will not go away any time soon. Quite the opposite, more measures to fight the Covid-19 are likely to be put in place going forward. A recent rise in new infections undermines prospects of a solid recovery in H2 as already reflected by a deterioration of sentiment in services. PMI services for euro area, France and Germany fell back into contraction area in September amid reduced travel, accommodation and tourism. On the upside, sentiment in the manufacturing kept improving pointing to rising momentum in the global industrial cycle. Risky assets are likely to suffer more amid soaring infections and renewed (local) lockdown fears, implying a slowdown in the recovery.