To simplify: When the unemployment rate becomes very low, it should be expected that growth cannot be higher than potential growth

Without making a detailed growth forecast (in terms of level and timing), we can stick to a simple rule: when the unemployment rate becomes very low (i.e. close to the structural unemployment rate), growth cannot be higher than potential growth. Looking at the available forecasts, we can see that this rule is not complied with in the United States, the euro zone, China and other emerging countries.