Towards a long period of sluggish global trade after the coronavirus crisis?

We believe that several trends may lead to a long period of weak global trade in the wake of the crisis: The shift in demand from durable goods to non-durable goods and services, linked to deleveraging; The acceleration of the shift back to regional value chains; Increased local content demands among governments and consumers in a context of economic reconstruction. A long period of weak global trade will of course penalise those countries that are the most dependent on global trade for their growth.