Towards an EU-China non-summit?

The European Union’s top officials will meet with the Chinese leadership in China from 24-25 July 2025 against a backdrop of strained relations, limited preparatory engagement and unresolved trade tensions. These factors suggest that any major breakthroughs are unlikely, even though the summit marks the fiftieth anniversary of EU-China diplomatic ties.The most likely outcome will be a continuation of the stuttering progress of the last few summits. The 2020 summit, held amid the COVID-19 pandemic, was marked by the EU’s recognition that China is not only a partner, but also an economic competitor and systemic rival. Furthermore, the pandemic exposed the EU’s over-reliance on China for strategic goods and highlighted China’s assertive ‘wolf warrior diplomacy’, including the practising of disinformation and coercion. Notwithstanding the EU’s hardened tone, China still managed to push the negotiations on the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) to the finish line by the end-2020 deadline that had been agreed.After a one-year hiatus, the 2022 summit, only a couple of months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, was tougher than ever. The EU ratification of the CAI had been suspended after China imposed sanctions on several members of the European Parliament, academics and think tanks. China also refused to condemn the Russian aggression. Meanwhile, the EU was concerned about the growing bilateral trade deficit. This dominated the summit, which ended without a joint communiqué.The difficulties continued at the 2023 Summit. China’s enabling role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine became even clearer and the EU’s trade deficit with China reached €400 billion, a consequence of unfair Chinese industrial policies. Chinese localisation requirements and cross-border data issues also topped the EU’s concerns ahead of the summit. China, meanwhile, criticised the EU’s carbon border adjustment mechanism and the ongoing EU trade investigations into Chinese products. The result was another summit with no relevant agreement and no joint communiqué.After another hiatus in 2024, the 2025 summit will take place under the shadow of the return of President Donald Trump to power and his continuing threats to the transatlantic alliance. This change in circumstances has led some European leaders to wonder if the EU should reset relations with China. But so far, there has been little sign of any reorientation.To start with, the 2025 summit should have taken place in Brussels, but President Xi Jinping declined the invitation so it will have to take place in China. Furthermore, rather than attend himself, Xi appears to have decided to send Premier Li Qiang as China’s top representative. Preparations for the summit have also been constrained because both the EU and China have been preoccupied with their respective negotiations with the United States, meaning not enough time and energy has been devoted to addressing the grievances of both sides.Other negative signals include China’s imposition of export controls on rare earth minerals, essential inputs to European electric vehicle (EV), defence and renewables industries. The European Commission remains frustrated with China’s lack of reciprocity and market access, ongoing discriminatory practices against European companies and persistent barriers to fair competition. Consequently, the EU declined to hold the usual High-Level Economic and Trade Dialogue with China ahead of the summit – a clear signal of frustration and scepticism.From China’s perspective, the EU has refused to lift its tariffs on Chinese EVs, currently including anti-subsidy duties of up to 35.3% on top of a 10% base tariff, which China reads as protectionist. As part of a charm offensive to persuade Europe to soften its tone, China in April lifted sanctions on some members of the European Parliament, in the hope that the CAI could be revived. But China is also making more threats, opening new investigations into European cognac, dairy products and beef. China’s goal is to eliminate the EU’s tariffs on EVs or, at least, agree minimum price commitments and restart negotiations on the CAI or another form of trade/investment deal.It thus seems clear that the 24-25 July EU-China summit will once again end without much agreement. That this is the fifth year without a constructive dialogue between the EU and China might need to be read as a structural reality, rather than a temporary problem – especially as difficult EU-US relations currently could have favoured a renewed EU-China dialogue. Unfortunately, the opportunity is set to be missed again.This is a reprint of Bruegel article./first-glance/towards-eu-china-non-summit