TURKEY: on the road to recession

Once one of the most buoyant and fast-growi ng emerging country , Turkey’s economy has lived a sharp downturn in the second half of 2018. Following a GDP growth average of 7% from 2010 to 2017, the Turkish economic performance , heavily shaken by a global adverse environment and more particularly by a currency crisis last summer, has steadily contracted in 2018 . D own from 7.2% in Q1, to 5.2% in Q2 and to 1.6% in Q3-2018, all the signs points towards a real risk of recession heading into 2019. We expect Turkish GDP to dive into negative territory in Q4-2018 at -1.1%, and to remain negative in Q1-2019.