US tariffs on imports from China will not reduce those imports in either the short or the long term

The United States has put off the possible imposition of further tariffs on imports from China until the second quarter of 2019. This threat is having very negative impact s on confidence and growth, especially in China. And yet: In the short term, th ese tariffs (as is already perceptible in 2018) do not reduce US imports from China, because the goods taxed are not produced in the United States, and they have no US substitute; In the long term, it is highly unlikely that these tariffs will lead to reshoring of production from China to the United States, given the very significant difference still existing between production costs in the two countries.