Report
Patrick Artus

We understand why Donald Trump is trying to drive down the oil price

Donald Trump is trying to drive down the oil price, mainly by pushing Saudi Arabia to produce more. This policy is understandable: As the United States is very close to full employment, employment growth will slow down; if the oil price continues to rise, the rise in inflation will perman ently eliminate the rise in real wages and wage income will slow down markedly as a result of weaker job creation ; Core inflation also depends on the oil price . If it continued to rise , the higher level of core inflation would prompt the Federal Reserve to hike its interest rates more than what the financial markets expect, leading to danger for the US economy ( due to the higher cost of credit, the end of share buybacks, the decline in property prices , etc. ). It is more difficult to understand why Saudi Arabia accepts to increase its production.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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