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What accounts for the dispersion of inflation between euro-zone countries?
Our analysis focuses on Germany, France, Spain and Italy. In January 2024, inflation was: 3.1 % in Germany; 3. 4 % in France; 3. 5 % in Spain; 0. 9 % in Italy. This difference between inflation rates in different countries may be due to differences in: The growth of consumer energy prices, due in particular to the subsidies introduced since Russia's invasion of Ukraine; Nominal wage growth rates; Productivity growth rates; Changes in profit margins. We see the effects of: The fall in energy prices on Italian inflation; The sharp rise in unit labour costs on inflation in Germany and Spain; The rise in profit margins on inflation in France. So there are three different inflation models in these four countries at the start of 2024 .
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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