What accounts for the “industrial mini-cycle†in 2019, and will it go away?
In 2019, there has been a very pronounced fall in industrial activity in all regions, giving rise to fears of a global recession: It can probably be attributed to the fall in demand for industrial products in China, leading to a fall in global trade; to the effects of climate regulations on some industries (automotive, chemicals); and to concern at the rise of protectionism; The good news is that the latest indicators seem to show that the worst of this mini-cycle is behind us, thanks to economic stimulus policies and to the growing likelihood of trade agreements between the United States and other countries.