Report
Patrick Artus

What accounts for the loss of potential growth?

We look at the situations of the United States and the euro zone; potential growth in these countries has declined since the turn of the century , especially since the subprime crisis of 2008-2009. If the objective of economic policies is to restore potential growth, the causes of its decline must first be identified. At first sight, they may be: Population ageing; A decline in the participation rate; Underinvestment (lower growth in the net capital stock ); A slowdown in total factor productivity (in technological progress). We see that the decline in potential growth is due to: In the United States, all the possible causes seen above; In the euro zone, all these causes except a fall in the participation rate. Economic policy must therefore act on net investment and on the determinants of technological progress (research effort, skills) and , in the United States, on the employability of people.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis
Christopher HODGE ... (+2)
  • Christopher HODGE
  • Jonathan PINGLE

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch