What accounts for the loss of potential growth?
We look at the situations of the United States and the euro zone; potential growth in these countries has declined since the turn of the century , especially since the subprime crisis of 2008-2009. If the objective of economic policies is to restore potential growth, the causes of its decline must first be identified. At first sight, they may be: Population ageing; A decline in the participation rate; Underinvestment (lower growth in the net capital stock ); A slowdown in total factor productivity (in technological progress). We see that the decline in potential growth is due to: In the United States, all the possible causes seen above; In the euro zone, all these causes except a fall in the participation rate. Economic policy must therefore act on net investment and on the determinants of technological progress (research effort, skills) and , in the United States, on the employability of people.