What consequences if pandemics are expected to recur?
What would be the consequences if the COVID crisis triggered expectations that pandemics will recur, that this is not a unique and exceptional event? In all likel ihood : Companies would deleverage and hold even larger cash reserves, and to finance these changes they would reduce their investments, especially the riskiest ones; Households would deleverage and accumulate precautionary savings; Banks would take less risk and hold more capital. On the whole, there would be less investment and more savings that would have to be lent to governments, which would offset the fall in private sector demand (the excess savings) by running up fiscal deficits. Therefore, only governments could not prepare themselves against a recurrence of the pandemic.