Report
Patrick Artus

What could derail the economic recovery?

Forecasters see growth in OECD countries remaining vigorous into 2022, which is consistent with the latest cyclical indicators. But what factors could derail the economic recovery? We see four such factors of varying severity. The rise in the prices of commodities and of companies’ intermediate consumption as well as supply chain bottlenecks could in theory reduce earnings and growth. For the time being, this effect does not appear to be large. Companies face acute hiring difficulties, even though there is still significant underemployment ; they are certainly a brake on the recovery. China’s growth is expected to slow significantly for several reasons. Even though fiscal policies will remain expansionary, given the various stimulus and social welfare plans , fiscal deficits in 2022 will be a fraction of those of 2021.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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