Report
What could spark a severe global economic crisis?
Beyond cyclical fluctuations and local crises, there is a risk of a severe global crisis that would affect all countries. We see three possible causes of a severe global economic crisis: A severe financial crisis in China, leading to a fall in activity. It could stem from the presence of very high debt that has financed partly inefficient capital; A loss of reserve currency status for the dollar, which would lead to a drastic recession in the United States ( which would spread to other countries) due to the need for the United States to eliminate its external deficit; A return of inflation and the related rise in nominal and real interest rates, given the very high level of debt, which could result from a change in the functioning of labour markets or from a geopolitical crisis that drove up oil prices sharply.
Provider
Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
Other Reports from Natixis
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.