Report
Patrick Artus

What does an empirical look at inflation tell us?

In this Flash we look not at theories of inflation, but empirically at what does and does not determine inflation in the contemporary period in the United States, the euro zone and Japan. We then see that: Inflation is not linked to money supply growth , so it is not a monetary phenomenon; The medium-term inflation trend is linked to that in labour costs; In the short run, inflation reacts to changes in commodity prices, exchange rates and indirect taxes; Inflation does not react or barely reacts to changes in unemployment rates and the output gap. If monetary policy and long-term interest rates depend on the medium-term inflation outlook, then one must look at the trend in labour costs and not monetary or fiscal policies.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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