What does China tell us about the economic recovery?
What will the nature of the economic recovery be after the lockdown period? We can look at developments in China, where the lockdown was lifted on 24 March (8 April in Wuhan) , to get an idea . What questions should we ask? How are consumers behaving? Have companies cut hiring and investment? Which economic sectors have been faster or slower to pick up than the others? What role has credit played? How have inflation and therefore the equilibrium between supply and demand evolved? We note: Cautio us consumers; Weak corporate investment; A below-normal level of activity, especially for household appliances, textiles, construction and services on the whole; some sectors (steel, automotive) are improving. The picture is therefore very mixed; Strong credit growth; A demand shortfall and lower inflation. This may serve as a guide for drawing up forecasts for OECD countries.