What does the configuration of non-resident share and bond purchases in the euro zone tell us?

We begin with non-resident purchases of euro-zone shares and bonds , looking at the euro zone as a whole and the core and the peripheral euro-zone countries. This allows us to identify investors’ expectations: If investors expect a depreciation (appreciation) of the euro, they will sell (buy) euro-zone bonds and shares; If they expect the euro to break up, they will sell euro-zone bonds and shares , and primarily financial assets from the periphery relative to core assets; If they expect growth, they will be buyers of shares and sellers of bonds; If they expect a recession, they will be sellers of shares and buyers of bonds. The table in the conclusion shows the dates at which these various regimes have appeared since 2010.