What happened in the second half of 2018?

In the second half of 2018, financial markets plummeted and business confidence tumbled. What was going on? Demand in China was falling, before the stimulus plan had the time to lift it; Investors and economists were fearing the effects of the trade war; The car market plummeted due to the diesel crisis and the saturation of demand; The fall in oil prices had not yet had the time to boost demand. All this explains why the end of 2018 should not be extrapolated to forecasts for 2019: China’s stimulus plan will boost demand; The prospect of a trade war has given way to trade compromises; Car sales have stabilised at a low level; The fall in oil prices is boosting demand in 2019 .