Asia 2026 Outlook: Growth to Moderate Amid Rising Geopolitical Risks
Despite tariff shocks, regional growth was resilient in 2025, supported by strong exports. The gradual implementation of tariffs, an upturn of the electronic and chip cycles, and loose fiscal policy in developed markets all bolstered Asian exports and, thus, growth. Subdued energy and commodity prices, especially in agriculture, have pushed down inflation. In addition, a softer USD, paved ways for rate cuts across Asia, to offset weak domestic demand. We expect Asia growth to decelerate in 2025 due to softer external demand as US, EU and China growth slows. Trump tariffs will likely bite harde...