What has caused the slowdown in global trade relative to global GDP over the past ten years?

Our theory is that the world is shifting from a mercantilist model of trade with value chain segmentation to a model where production is located in proximity to the final buyers of goods , and that this shift has led global trade to slow relative to global GDP. If this theory is right, we should see that the slowdown in global trade corresponds to slowdown s in: Imports in countries (regions) with fast -growing domestic demand; Exports from countries (regions) where production was located under the previous mercantilist model. Both developments are visible, which confirms the theory that production is returning to the vicinity of final buyers.