Report
Patrick Artus

What implications would the disappearance of wage inflation have in OECD countries?

We assume that in OECD countries, the link between the economic cycle and the unemployment rate and growth in unit labour costs and therefore core inflation has disappeared for good. What would be the likely implications of such a situation? Oil price increases would be the only possible driver of inflation; Interest rates would rem ain lower than the growth rate, which would stave off another debt crisis but would lead to more debt; Asset prices would be driven upwards by the low interest rates; The OECD economy would therefore become highly sensitive to any unexpected increase in inflation and interest rates, given the high debt ratios and asset prices.
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Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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