What information is contained in the US yield curve?
Many investors believe that the flattening of the US yield curve points to a recession , and this contributes to the equity market fall . We will therefore look at, empirically, what moves in the US yield curve point to as regards: Short-term interest rates; Growth; Inflation; Variability of long-term interest rates. We see that since the early 1990s, the yield curve slope has not been a leading indicator of anything . The current flattening of the US yield curve does not point to a recession.