What is happening in France?
In the first quarter of 2022, growth in France (-0.2%) was significantly lower than in the euro zone as a whole (+0.6%), and even more so than in the euro zone excluding France ( +0.8 %) . Yet inflation is lower in France than in the other euro-zone countries, thanks to government intervention, and France’s fiscal policy is highly expansionary (wages are rising in France as much as in the rest of the euro zone). So what is happening in France? We can think of: A loss of confidence among French households, which may be saving more than households in the euro zone; A loss of confidence among French companies, which may be investing less; Greater hiring difficulties for companies in France than in the euro zone as a whole; A deterioration in French industry and its ability to meet demand, which may lead to a sharp deterioration in foreign trade. The only relevant explanation seems to be the sharp deterioration in industry and foreign trade in France.