What is the direction of the causality between monetary policy and PMIs (growth prospects)?

We can imagine two directions for the causality between interest rates and PMIs (growth prospects): The deterioration in the growth outlook drives central banks to switch to a more expansionary monetary policy; in this case, PMIs cause (precede) interest rates; The switch - or the announcement of a switch - to a more expansionary monetary policy sends a message of pessimism that leads to a deterioration in expected growth; in this case, interest rates cause (precede) PMIs. In the recent period, PMIs have caused expected interest rates in the United States; There has not been any link between PMIs and expected interest rates in the euro zone.