What is the usual profile of share prices in recessions?

S hare prices have fallen sharply in the United States and the euro zone since the summer of 2018 , even though the United States and the euro zone are definitely not in recession. This leads us to examine the profile of share prices i n past recessions to try to decide between two hypotheses for the current period: Either equity investors are wrong about the cyclical situation in the United States and the euro zone (correspond ing to simultane ous movements in share prices and in growth in the past ); Or equity markets are heralding a recession in the United States and the euro zone (correspond ing to a situation where movements in share prices preced ed those in growth in the past ). Variations in share prices precede slightly (by one quarter) variations in growth , which tends to support the hypothesis of an error on the part of investors .