What mechanisms could bring back inflation?
A return of inflation in OECD countries would have considerable effects: rise in interest rates, capital losses on bond portfolios, loss of borrower solvency, fall in the prices of assets linked to interest rates. Inflation could be brought back by: In the United States, a significant change to labour market policies, in particular if Elizabeth Warren won the presidential election; A rise in oil prices resulting from either considerable geopolitical tensions in the Middle East or regulations targeting shale oil production in the United States; The appearance of inflationary mechanisms: the skewing of economies towards services, corporate concentration, the return to regional value chains.