Report
Patrick Artus

What new fiscal rule in the euro zone?

Most commentators accept the idea that the current fiscal rules in the euro zone (fiscal deficit below 3% of GDP, structural fiscal deficit returning to 0.5% of GDP, return to a public debt ratio of 60% of GDP within 20 years at the most if it is higher) will not survive the COVID crisis. But what should they be replaced with? A complete absence of a fiscal rule would only be conceivable if fiscal deficits were perpetually monetised by the ECB, which is not possible. Moreover, the northern countries, notably Germany, reject such a solution; A "smart" fiscal rule would probably involve: A ban on taking on debt to finance current structural fiscal deficits that are non-cyclical and not generated by investment; But with the possibility of taking on debt to finance efficient investments, with a commonly accepted definition of such investments in the euro zone.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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