What outlook for corporate bankruptcies in France?

Although the number of corporate bankruptcies in France fell sharply in 2020, thanks to government subsidies and deferrals of taxes and loan repayments, many observers are concerned about a possible sharp rise in bankruptcies in the future, as the health crisis is continuing into 2021. We try to estimate the future trend in corporate bankruptcies in France by looking at the link between the number of bankruptcies and changes in: Cash flows and borrowing requirements; Debt and cash reserves; Interest expenses. Econometric analysis leads us to the hypothesis of a 25% increase in corporate bankruptcies in France compared to the 2019 level unless the deterioration in these variables due to the crisis is not corrected .