Report
What remains of the gaps between GDP losses during the COVID crisis in Germany, France, Spain and Italy once adjusted for the tourism effect?
The size of the loss of GDP due to the COVID crisis has differed greatly between the four largest euro-zone countries. This may be due to structural causes (the size of automatic stabilisers, labour market rules, the solidity of companies), but also simply to the size of the tourism sector. We look at what remains of the gaps between GDP losses once adjusted for the tourism effect. We see that the fall in GDP has been very large in Spain, large in Italy and France and smaller in Germany, but that 70% of the gaps between GDP falls is due to tourism. S tructural differences between the countries play out in different directions: the fall in GDP has led to cyclical deficits; employment has fallen further in Italy; investment has picked up faster in France. But the role of tourism is central.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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