What to make of financial markets’ anticipations of a recession? Can a recession be self-fulfilling?
Financial and commodity markets now believe that the United States and the euro zone will slide into recession. In the United States, there is an objective cause for a recession being triggered: the very sharp reduction in the fiscal deficit. In the euro zone, fiscal policy is not restrictive. But a recession can result from a major loss of supply of commodities (Russian gas). First, it is worth noting that the possible US recession due to restrictive fiscal policy would be disinflationary, and the possible European recession due to commodity supply problems would be inflationary. But it is also worth questioning whether anticipations of a recession can trigger a self-fulfilling recession. One possible mechanism is the negative wealth effect that results from falling asset prices due to anticipations of a recession. But on the other hand, the fall in interest rates and commodity prices (other than for natural gas in Europe today) is boosting demand. So a self-fulfilling recession is not easy to imagine.