Report
Patrick Artus

What will the ECB do if European inflation becomes very high in the winter of 2022-2023?

It is possible that European inflation will become very high in the winter of 2022-2023, and furthermore that this inflation will go hand-in-hand with a recession. This is because inflation will be pushed up by: The expected sharp rise in energy prices, due to the interruption of Russian gas supplies; The increasing indexation of wages to prices as inflation rises. The ECB will then have to make a trade-off between: Preserving its credibility; Preventing activity from collapsing. But even if it chooses a compromise between these two objectives, it will lead to a much higher interest rate than what financial market s currently expect.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

Other Reports from Natixis

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch