What will the ECB do if European inflation becomes very high in the winter of 2022-2023?
It is possible that European inflation will become very high in the winter of 2022-2023, and furthermore that this inflation will go hand-in-hand with a recession. This is because inflation will be pushed up by: The expected sharp rise in energy prices, due to the interruption of Russian gas supplies; The increasing indexation of wages to prices as inflation rises. The ECB will then have to make a trade-off between: Preserving its credibility; Preventing activity from collapsing. But even if it chooses a compromise between these two objectives, it will lead to a much higher interest rate than what financial market s currently expect.