Report
Patrick Artus

What would it take for there to truly be inflation?

For there to truly be inflation, there would have to be ( like in the late 1970s and early 1980s) a conflict for income distribution between companies and wage earners: Wage earners have sufficient bargaining power to obtain wage increases, either because the labour market tight ens or because wages are indexed to prices and an exogenous shock (commodity prices in particular) drives up inflation; These wage increases reduce corporate earnings and companies react by raising their prices, which drives up wages further if they are indexed to prices. Today: A tight labour market does not lead to an acceleration in wages; Wages are very weakly indexed to prices; Corporate profitability is already high. So the conditions for “true” inflation do not appear to be met.
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Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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