When did the regime change?

We examine when the inflation regime changed from one of low inflation or even deflation to a high inflation regime in the euro zone and the United States : This regime change took place before the war in Ukraine, which has of course amplified it, but did not trigger it; The change in wage earner attitudes, leading to a sharp increase in hiring difficulties, did not cause the regime change either. Indeed, wages follow rather than precede inflation, so they cannot be its cause; The most likely cause of the regime change is the shift in the structure of demand from services towards goods, which gave rise to supply shortages for energy, other commodities and transport. It will therefore take a significant expansion in goods production capacity for inflation to correct downwards, unless monetary policy drastically contracts demand for goods (and not just overall demand for goods and services).