Which countries are currently sheltered from the factors weakening growth?
Growth is weakening in some countries under the effect of: Weak global trade, and in particular weak Chinese imports; The decline of “old industries†(automotive, intermediate goods, capital goods); The risk of being affected by US protectionism. The countries where growth will be the most resilient are therefore those where: The weight of exports - especially exports to China - is low; The weight of old industries is low; The trade surplus with the United States is small. This is the case of: Among the major OECD countries, the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, the Netherlands and Australia; Among the major emerging countries, Brazil, Argentina, the CEECs, Turkey, India and Indonesia.