Report
Which regions suffer the most from the consequences of a global recession and why?
We seek to determine which major regions (North America, Latin America, the euro zone, Japan, China, emerging Asia excluding China, Africa) suffered the most as a result of the 2008-2009 recession. A permanent loss of growth can be linked to: A loss of human capital that hampers an employment recovery; A weak economic policy response; A lasting decline in the financing of the economy or a lasting rise in risk premia that weaken investment; Increased debt. We can see that the loss of activity was particularly pronounced after the subprime crisis in the euro zone and Japan , and that it can be attributed to the extent of job losses and to deleveraging and, in Japan, to the impossibility of cutting interest rates. Will the same causes have the same consequences after the COVID crisis? The United States is also likely to suffer from the impossibility of cutting interest rates , and this time around, emerging countries will be the ones who need to deleverage.
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Natixis
Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.
Patrick Artus
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