Which situation in the labour market? What real time indicators say #15

The impact of the coronavirus crisis on the labour market is one of the most important elements of the health crisis. With the interruption of non-essential production activities during the containment period , the decline in household consumption and despite the implementation of short- time working scheme paid for by States, a ll European countries expect the unemployment rate to rise sharply in the coming months. In order to take stock of the developments already observed on the labour market, we are studying this week high-frequency data concerning employment in France and more generally in Europe: The number of job postings in France reached a low level during the lockdown period: the number of job postings decreased by -57% compared to January 2020. At the same time, the number of applications to Pôle emploi fell sharply over the same period (-23% in mid-May 2020 compared to the same date in 2019) before gradually increasing. We can draw a number of conclusions regarding short- time work ing scheme in France: at the end of July, 2.4 million French people are still in short- time work , compared to 8.8 million in April. Employees whose enterprises have made the demand for short- time work are even more important (about 7.7 million employees in July). European employment data show slight differences between countries although the trajectory remains similar: after lower levels in April, employment PMIs have recovered but remain in a contraction area at 46.3 in France. In Italy and Spain, unemployment and employment figures in recent months point to the first stage of a continuing deterioration of the labour market in the coming months.