Who will finance the United States if Europe uses all its savings and oil prices remain low?
From 2013 until the COVID crisis, the United States’ deficits (fiscal and external) were financed mainly by the euro zone and OPEC countries. But this equilibrium may be about to change considerably: If Europe manages to get a jointly-financed recovery plan over the line, it will use its excess savings to finance new investments and these excess savings (the euro zone’s external surplus) will disappear; If oil prices remain lower after the crisis due to the lasting fall in the level of global activity, the external surpluses of OPEC countries will also disappear. At equilibrium, the United States would then have to eliminate its external deficit, leading to either a more restrictive fiscal policy or a rise in dollar interest rates, driving down private sector demand in the United States .