Report
Patrick Artus

Why did the dollar depreciate sharply against the euro from 2002 to 2008?

We seek to determine whether the dollar could depreciate sharply against the euro today, and we therefore look at what caused the sharp depreciation of the dollar between 2002 and 2008. Possible explanations are: The United States' external deficit and its accumulation of external debt; Small capital flows to the United States, possibly caused by low interest rates; The size of capital flows to emerging countries; Confidence in the euro thanks to strong cohesion in the euro zone (no risk linked to the peripheral countries); A safe-haven role for the dollar when there is low risk aversion. The relevant explanations for the depreciation of the dollar against the euro between 2002 and 2008 were the US external deficit, only in 2007-2008 small capital flows to the United States, from 2004 capital flows to emerging countries, confidence in the euro, low risk aversion. Are these same explanations valid today? Nearly all of them, with the exception of inflows of equity capital into the United States (outflows in bonds) and risk aversion , which remains high.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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