Why does the ECB want to cut its key rates?
The ECB decided to cut its key rates (from 4.50% to 4.25% for the repo rate) in June 2024, and it is not impossible that further cuts will follow after June 2024. However, the statistics that are being published are hardly compatible with rate cuts: Unit labour costs up 5.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024 in the euro zone, wages up 4.7% year-on- year; Recovery in growth (0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2024, upswing in the euro-zone composite PMI ); Normalisation of supply conditions and changes in credit demand; Continuing high levels of recruitment difficulties and tight labour market; Recovery in commodity prices (oil, natural gas, agricultural commodities, industrial metals). It is hard to understand why the ECB is cutting interest rates when wage inflation is very high and the economy is recovering in the euro zone.