Report
Patrick Artus

Why have long-term interest rates not risen more in the euro zone?

There have been large bond capital outflows from the euro zone since the start of 2018. Investors are worried about the Italian crisis and once again about the risk of the euro breaking up. The considerable bond capital outflows ought to have driven up long-term interest rates in the euro zone as a whole (core and peripheral countries taken as a whole). Yet the rise in interest rates has been very feeble. Why have long-term interest rates in the euro zone not risen more , despite the bond capital outflows? The rise in risk aversion is driving investors from the peripheral countries to the core countries, but is unlikely to modify the long-term interest rate of the euro zone as a whole; The only possible explanation then is that domestic investors have shifted from other financial assets (equities, corporate bonds) to public sector bonds and have replaced non-resident investors. An observation of the facts shows that this latter explanation is indeed right.
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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